25/02/2023
Good Evening … We have Tropical Disturbance which we’ve been monitoring in the past few days, this system developed in the vicinity of Samoa and moved westwards, and is currently located to the north of Fiji, near the east of Rotuma. In the past 12 hours TD has showed signs of slight organisation, with deep convection firing up near the supposed low level circulation centre of the system, however the most recent microwave pass over the system from about 6 hours ago shows that the system is still broad and disorganised. 08F lies in an are of favourable conditions, conductive for tropical cyclone developments, sea surface temperature is around 29C with low-moderate wind shear. This system is expected to move towards the west in the next 24-48 hours and could become a Tropical Cyclone to the north of Vanuatu by Tuesday or earlier. The global computer models are forecasting 08F to become a category 1 tropical cyclone in about 48-76 hours time, with uncertainties over its track in the next couple of days, however interest in Vanuatu should monitor the progress of this system for potential impacts mid next week.
A more detailed update on this Tropical Disturbance will be posted tomorrow.